Texas Rangers head to Seattle for series vs. first-place Mariners, and a massive challenge (2024)

LOS ANGELES — There is still more than half a season to play. It’s too early to call a single series critical. Then again, Seattle offers all the obstacles that could, in fact, define these Rangers.

Sure, the Mariners are the team the Rangers are currently chasing in the AL West. The deficit was 6.5 games entering Thursday, the largest they have faced this season, but still not insurmountable.

More notable: The Rangers have to figure out a way to solve Seattle pitching.

“You think about that team and you think about the great arms they have over there,” manager Bruce Bochy said Thursday before the Rangers’ series finale with Los Angeles. “It’s one of the better rotations in baseball.”

Why? The Mariners throw — and command — fastballs. And the dirty little secret about the Rangers is that nothing vexes them more than a good fastball. Sometimes, they don’t even have to be that good.

Where the Mariners are concerned, the numbers just don’t add up well for the Rangers. Put simply: Seattle throws more four-seamers than most teams and gets better results. On the other end: The Rangers face a lot of four-seamers and are among the least productive against the pitch.

First, the rotation has been at the heart of the Mariners’ ascent. It has been both durable and effective. The Mariners began Thursday with 410 innings from the rotation, the most in baseball. The group has generated a 3.42 ERA, the fifth-best in baseball. They’ve used only seven starters to this point. Only three teams have used fewer. They’ve been good. And steady.

“There are no guarantees, but when you’ve got a strong rotation, they tend to keep you in games longer,” Bochy said. “And the more games you stay in, the more you end up having a chance to win.”

Bochy’s Theory of Starting Pitching helps explain why Seattle began play Thursday with a run differential only 11 runs better than the Rangers, but such a big lead. Based on the Mariners’ +12 run differential for the season, Seattle had an expected won-loss record of 36-34; the Rangers, who had a +1, had an expected won-loss record of 34-33. Seattle has won an inordinate number of one-run games, leading the AL with 16 one-run wins. On one hand, pitching helps you win close games. On the other, stats analysts will tell you that one-run wins are often a product of luck more than anything else. Perhaps, but good pitching tends to lead to good luck.

Now, go a little deeper. Seattle has thrown the sixth-highest percentage of four-seam fastballs in the majors. The expected batting average on those pitches: .199. It’s the second-best. The Mariners lead with the fastball. It’s what they did in winning two of three against the Rangers in Arlington in April. Both of Seattle’s wins ranked among the 15 highest games in terms of four-seam percentage the Rangers faced this season. The Rangers scored a total of three runs in the two losses, one of which was a one-run loss.

The Rangers will face the two starters that beat them back in April, Luis Castillo on Friday and Logan Gilbert on Sunday. In between: George Kirby, whose four-seam run value ranks in the 99th percentile in the majors. Kirby is holding hitters to a .205 batting average and .348 slugging percentage on the pitch.

Think those numbers are ugly. Well, just wait. We haven’t presented the Rangers side. It gets worse.

They’ve faced the third-highest percentage of four-seamers in the majors. Their batting average (.236) ranks 20th. Their slugging percentage (.368) ranks 27th. They simply haven’t hit or driven fastballs.

Adolis García’s tailspin began the minute Seattle got through with him. He is hitting just .114 against the pitch with a 32.1% strikeout rate since that April series. He began Thursday hitting just .152 overall since the end of the Mariners series with a .509 OPS.

It’s been a long, hard fall for him and the Rangers.

The Mariners series this weekend offers them the chance to pick themselves back up. Or further define themselves as a team that simply can’t handle fastball.

Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant

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